Prediction methods

Probability, not prophecy.

Models organize evidence but cannot eliminate injuries, line-up changes and randomness.

1X2

Start with simpler markets

Home, draw or away has fewer outcomes than an exact score and is easier to explain and test.

Use calibrated probabilities

Probabilities should total 100% and be compared with implied market probability.

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Update the inputs

Team strength, injuries, venue, schedule and price can change a forecast.

Compare, then decide

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